This study explores the impact of economic downturn in the EU-27 on Syrian trade and
the sensitivity of oil and petroleum products to this downturn. This is carried out using a
derivation of the gravity model to determine the export demand. Syrian export with its
top 30 trading partners as well as the EU-27 are taken into consideration along with
various other trade determinants when measuring the changes in total export volume.
The study finds that EU-27 is an important source of demand for Syria, but a downturn
in the EU economy will not necessarily have a detrimental effect on Syrian economy.
On the other hand, oil plays a far more important role on the country’s exports and its
demand is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.