Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
A House Price Bubble in Sweden?
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School.
2006 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 points / 15 hpStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Abstract

The topic of an overheated housing market, in Sweden, has been extensively discussed, not least by the media. This thesis will contribute to the debate by answering the question whether a potential price bubble exists in the Swedish housing market. Years between 1984 and 2004 are analysed using conventional metrics, which include house price-to- rent and income ratios respectively, changes in the dynamics of real house prices, as well as demographic variations. The analyse continues with the use of the imputed rent, also known as the yearly cost of ownership. Moreover the fundamental factors; interest rates, indebtedness and turnover of houses are discussed.

It will be concluded that the conventional measures can be misleading. The imputed rent is a superior measure since it is the true cost of ownership and it accounts for changes in important determinants of house demand, mainly the interest rate. The answer to the title of this paper is; no, house prices (in 2004) in Sweden did not appear to be particularly overvalued, neither when compared to yearly rents in the tenancy market, disposable incomes, nor when low levels of interest rates are taken into account. However, this does not rule out that house prices cannot fall in the near future.

Abstract [sv]

Sammanfattning

Denna kandidatuppsats behandlar ämnet om en möjlig husprisbubbla i Sverige. Sedvanliga tekniker som används vid analysering av prisbubblor innefattar användandet av proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror samt disponibla inkomster. Även dynamiken i reella huspriser och demografiska förändringar utvärderas.

I denna analys jämförs åren mellan 1984 och 2004 genom att använda “imputed rent”, vilken representerar den årliga kostnaden av ägande. Även fundamentala faktorer som räntan, skuldsättningen samt omsättningen av hus undersöks. Den slutsats som uppsatsen resulterar i understryker att de sedvanliga bruken kan vara vilseledande och att ”imputed rent” är en bättre teknik. Detta eftersom ”imputed rent” representerar den verkliga kostnaden av ägande samt inbegriper viktiga avgörande faktorer, som räntan. Därför är svaret på titeln; nej, huspriserna (år 2004) i Sverige förefaller sig inte vara särskilt övervärderade, när de jämförs med årliga hyror av likvärdiga hyresrättslägenheter och disponibla inkomster, samt när hänsyn tas till den låga räntan. Detta utesluter dock inte en framtida nedgång av huspriserna.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. , 27 p.
Keyword [en]
Housing, House prices, Bubble, User cost, Imputed rent, House price-to-rent ratio, House price-to-income ratio, Swedish housing market
Keyword [sv]
Huspriser, Bubbla, Svenska husmarknaden, Proportionen mellan huspriser och hyror, Proportionen mellan huspriser och disponibla inkomster
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-784OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-784DiVA: diva2:4519
Uppsok
samhälle/juridik
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2007-04-24 Created: 2007-04-24

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(347 kB)1397 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 347 kBChecksum MD5
392c7bafe7ce658ff453116f1f235c400db3f036e650b2b8243728814a6d89b94794e33b
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Jönköping International Business School
Economics and Business

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 1397 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 1126 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf