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Firm Valuation: Which model gives me the most accurate share price, the Dividend Discount Model or the Free Cash Flow to Equity Model?
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics, Finance and Statistics.
2011 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Purpose:

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the applicability of the Free Cash Flow to Equity Model and the Dividend Discount Model on ten large cap firms on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Moreover the author intends to examine whether these valuation methods differs in regards of the companies’ operational segment, business cycle and turnover. The target prices will hereafter be benchmarked with actual closing prices and professional analysts to observe similarities and deviations.

Method:

The focus lies on Swedish companies listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm’s Large Cap list. The companies are valued by collecting financial information from 2006- 2010 in order to find out what the share price in the beginning of 2011 should be. The models that are used to value the share are the Dividend Discount Model, which basically discounts actual dividends in order to find the present value of the share, and the Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which is discounting the firms’ cash flow available to its stockholders, i.e. the potential dividends. Since both of the valuation models require assumptions on future growth to be made, a combination of calculations and goals presented by the companies has been made in order to assume growth rates.

Findings:

The findings reveal that out of the twenty valuations that were made half of the most accurate ones came from the Dividend Discount Model, and half came from the Free Cash Flow to Equity model. It was however the Dividend Discount Model that provided the most accurate share prices, in comparison to the actual share prices from January 2011. It is also concluded that the turnover of the firm being evaluated does not have an impact on the valuation process, whilst the industry in which the firm operates as well as its payout ratio are factors that need to be taken into consideration when choosing between the Dividend Discount Model and the Free Cash Flow to Equity model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. , 78 p.
Keyword [en]
Stock valuation, future growth prospects, valuation models
National Category
Economics and Business Business Administration Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-15420OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-15420DiVA: diva2:423664
Subject / course
IHH, Economics
Presentation
, Jönköping (English)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Projects
IHH - Examensarbete, företagsekonomi
Available from: 2011-08-04 Created: 2011-06-16 Last updated: 2011-08-04Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
  • rtf