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Can the LR Test Be Helpful in Choosing the Otpimal Lag Order in the VAR Model When Information Criteria Suggest Different Lag Orders?
Economics, UAE University.
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.
2009 (English)In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 41, no 9, p. 1121-1125Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The objective of this simulation study is to investigate whether the likelihood ratio (LR) test can pick the optimal lag order in the vector autoregressive model when the most applied information criteria (i.e. vector Schwarz--Bayesian, SBC and vector Hannan-Quinn, HQC) suggest two different lag orders. This lag-choosing procedure has been suggested by Hatemi-J (1999). The results based on the Monte Carlo simulations show that combining the LR test with SBC and HQC causes a substantial increase in the success rate of choosing the optimal lag order compared to cases when only SBC or HQC are used. This appears to be the case irrespective of homoscedasticity or conditional heteroscedasticity properties of the error-term in small sample sizes. This improvement in choosing the right lag order also tends to improve the forecasting capability of the underlying model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2009. Vol. 41, no 9, p. 1121-1125
Keywords [en]
VAR, Lag length, Information Criteria, Monte Carlo Simulations, Likelihood Ratio Test
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-5396DOI: doi:10.1080/00036840601019273OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-5396DiVA, id: diva2:36216
Available from: 2008-03-05 Created: 2008-03-05 Last updated: 2017-12-12Bibliographically approved

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Hacker, R Scott

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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