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Oil Dependencies and Peak Oil's Effects on Oil Consumption: A case study of six countries
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.
2007 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 points / 15 hpStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

During the year of 2007, the world has experienced historically high oil prices both in nominal and in real terms, which has reopened discussions about energy sustainability. We therefore found it interesting to research oil dependencies and elasticities for Brazil, China, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and USA; and their possible oil consumption response to a Peak Oil phenomenon. Peak Oil in this thesis, implies that oil production will reach its climax and decline thereafter. To help draw conclusions, appropriate statistical analysis on macroeconomic variables was used as well as the modified Nerlove’s partial adjustment equation to calculate price and income elasticities both in the short and long-run. Regression results have shown that short-run price elasticities were low in all countries; in addition income elasticities were also inelastic but more elastic in relation to oil price elasticities. This indicates that oil consumption is more sensitive to changes in income than to changes in oil price. It was concluded that oil dependencies among nations differ and the trend is that developing countries are increasing their oil dependency while developed countries tend to decrease their oil dependency over time. Peak Oil will lead to higher oil prices, which in the short-run will change developing countries oil consumption to a greater extent than developed countries, but in the long-run their response are more similar. It was also noticed, that when GDP decreases in net-oil-importing countries, oil consumption will decrease even further. The opposite could be true for net-oil-exporting countries like Norway and Brazil.

Abstract [sv]

Under år 2007 har världen upplevt historiskt höga oljepriser, både i nominella och reala termer, vilket återigen har lyft upp energiförsörjningen på agendan. Vi fann det därför intressant att undersöka oljeberoenden i Brasilien, Kina, Norge, Sydkorea, Sverige, USA och se hur dessa länders oljekonsumption kan påverkas av Peak Oil. Peak oil betyder att oljeproduktionen når sitt maximum och minskar därefter. För att kunna dra slutsatser har lämpliga statistiska verktyg använts på olika makroekonomiska variabler och applicerat ”Nerlove’s partial adjustment model” på data har pris-och inkomstelasticiteten av olja i varje land både på kort och lång sikt kunnat utvinnas. Från regressionen har framträtt; priselasticiteten var låg på kort sikt i alla länder och detta gäller även för inkomstelasticiteten, dock var inkomstelasticiteten relativt mer elastisk i alla länder. Detta indikerar att oljekonsumtionen är mer känslig för förändringar i inkomst än för förändringar i pris. Slutsatsen från studien är att olika länder har olika nivåer av oljeberoende och att utvecklingsländer tenderar att öka sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid medan de industrialiserade länderna tenderar att minska sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid. Peak Oil leder till högre oljepriser vilket på kort sikt kommer att påverka utvecklingsländernas oljekonsumtion mer än de industrialiserade ländernas, dock minskar skillnaden på lång sikt. En observering från denna forskning är att när BNP minskar hos olje-importörerna kommer även oljekonsumtionen att minska. För oljeexportörer som Brasilien och Norge kan oljekonsumptionen öka när BNP inkomsterna ökar från Peak Oil.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. , 43 p.
Keyword [en]
Peak Oil, Elasticity, Oil Dependency, Nerlove’s Partial Adjustment Model, Asymmetric Effects
Keyword [sv]
Peak Oil, Elasticitet, Oljeberoende, Nerlove’s Partial Adjustment Model, Asymmetriska Effekter
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1057OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-1057DiVA: diva2:3495
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samhälle/juridik
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Available from: 2008-01-22 Created: 2008-01-22

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