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Structural change in city systems evolution
Department of Industrial Economics, Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH); Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum, Stockholm, Sweden; CIRCLE, Lund University, Karlskrona, Sweden.
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0184-5350
Nordregio; Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
2024 (English)In: The annals of regional science, ISSN 0570-1864, E-ISSN 1432-0592, Vol. 73, p. 1517-1538Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper analyzes city system dynamics, based on a theoretical framework relating interaction potentials to agglomeration economies and density externalities. It employs new historical time series data on population size of cities in Sweden over two centuries (1810-2010) and introduces two schematic growth factors: (i) the intra-city potential and (ii) the extra-city potential located in in rings encircling each city. The first factor is measured by each city's population size, while the second is a vector of distance-discounted population size for each of a city's urban rings. In this way, we can explain a city's growth as a function of its interaction potential inside the city, as well as inside the first, second hand third ring. A robust finding is that cities with large ring potentials follow different development paths than those with small ring potentials. We also find clear evidence of structural change between the two centuries 1810-1910 and 1910-2010. In the first period, city growth is positively impacted by the size of the intra-city potential, whereas the same potential dampens or reduces the growth in the second period. Moreover, the ring potentials outside the city tend to switch from having negative growth stimulation in the first period to having positive stimulation in the second period.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2024. Vol. 73, p. 1517-1538
Keywords [en]
City systems, Evolution, Urban growth, Size distribution, Spatial interaction, Spatial interdependence, City networks, C21, L84, R11, R12, R30
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-66471DOI: 10.1007/s00168-024-01322-wISI: 001333424500002Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85206841560Local ID: HOA;;979814OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-66471DiVA, id: diva2:1908552
Available from: 2024-10-28 Created: 2024-10-28 Last updated: 2025-01-12Bibliographically approved

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