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Das House Kapital: A Long-Run Theory of House Prices and Housing Wealth
Univ Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.;CESifo, Munich, Germany.;Inst Stdy Lab IZA, Bonn, Germany.;UCL, Ctr Res & Anal Migrat CReAM, London, England..
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Economics. Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Centre for Entrepreneurship and Spatial Economics (CEnSE).
CESifo, Munich, Germany.;Univ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.;Halle Inst Econ Res IWH, Halle, Germany..
2025 (English)In: Journal of the European Economic Association, ISSN 1542-4766, E-ISSN 1542-4774, Vol. 23, no 2, p. 705-745Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the last 70 years, many advanced countries have experienced growing real house prices and an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio. To explain these long-run patterns, this paper introduces a novel multi-sector growth model where housing services are produced using non-reproducible land and reproducible structures. Land is also employed in the non-housing sector. First, we identify two fundamental mechanisms driving the long-run increase in the real house price: (i) technological progress in the construction sector lags behind the technological progress of the rest of the economy and (ii) housing production is more land-intensive than non-housing production. Second, we study transitional dynamics for the US, UK, France, and Germany. Our calibrated model explains most of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio since 1950. Counterfactual experiments identify initially low stocks of residential structures and non-residential capital as key exogenous drivers for this increase. The associated investment incentives led to a long-lasting construction boom and steadily increasing land scarcity, boosting residential land prices.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2025. Vol. 23, no 2, p. 705-745
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-65851DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvae038ISI: 001273375700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105004292020Local ID: HOA;intsam;965100OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-65851DiVA, id: diva2:1888555
Available from: 2024-08-13 Created: 2024-08-13 Last updated: 2025-05-13Bibliographically approved

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Larin, Benjamin

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