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Rule extraction with guarantees from regression models
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0412-6199
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0274-9026
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
2022 (English)In: Pattern Recognition, ISSN 0031-3203, E-ISSN 1873-5142, Vol. 126, article id 108554Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Tools for understanding and explaining complex predictive models are critical for user acceptance and trust. One such tool is rule extraction, i.e., approximating opaque models with less powerful but interpretable models. Pedagogical (or black-box) rule extraction, where the interpretable model is induced using the original training instances, but with the predictions from the opaque model as targets, has many advantages compared to the decompositional (white-box) approach. Most importantly, pedagogical methods are agnostic to the kind of opaque model used, and any learning algorithm producing interpretable models can be employed for the learning step. The pedagogical approach has, however, one main problem, clearly limiting its utility. Specifically, while the extracted models are trained to mimic the opaque, there are absolutely no guarantees that this will transfer to novel data. This potentially low test set fidelity must be considered a severe drawback, in particular when the extracted models are used for explanation and analysis. In this paper, a novel approach, solving the problem with test set fidelity by utilizing the conformal prediction framework, is suggested for extracting interpretable regression models from opaque models. The extracted models are standard regression trees, but augmented with valid prediction intervals in the leaves. Depending on the exact setup, the use of conformal prediction guarantees that either the test set fidelity or the test set accuracy will be equal to a preset confidence level, in the long run. In the extensive empirical investigation, using 20 publicly available data sets, the validity of the extracted models is demonstrated. In addition, it is shown how normalization can be used to provide individualized prediction intervals, thus providing highly informative extracted models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022. Vol. 126, article id 108554
Keywords [en]
Conformal prediction, Explainable AI, Interpretability, Predictive regression, Rule extraction, Conformal mapping, Data mining, Extraction, Forecasting, Learning algorithms, Conformal predictions, Prediction interval, Predictive models, Regression modelling, Rules extraction, Test sets, Users' acceptance, Regression analysis
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-55960DOI: 10.1016/j.patcog.2022.108554ISI: 000761147800007Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85124506084Local ID: HOA;;798114OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-55960DiVA, id: diva2:1641517
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 20190194Available from: 2022-03-02 Created: 2022-03-02 Last updated: 2022-03-29Bibliographically approved

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Johansson, UlfSönströd, CeciliaLöfström, Tuwe

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