Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Can the market forecast the weather better than meteorologists?
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Many companies depend on weather conditions, so they require reliable weather forecasts for production planning or risk hedging. In this article, we propose a new way of gaining weather forecasts by exploiting the forward-looking information included in the market prices of weather derivatives traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). For this purpose, the CME futures prices of two monthly temperature indices relevant for the energy sector are compared with index forecasts derived from meteorological temperature forecasts. It turns out that the market prices generally outperform the meteorological forecasts in predicting the outcome of the monthly index. Hence, companies whose profit strongly depends on these indices, such as energy companies, can profit from this additional information source about future weather.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , 2012. , p. 13
Series
SFB 649 Discussion Paper, ISSN 1860-5664 ; 2012-067
Keywords [en]
Weather derivatives, weather forecasts, CME, energy sector
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-55250OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-55250DiVA, id: diva2:1616850
Available from: 2021-12-04 Created: 2021-12-04 Last updated: 2021-12-04Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Fulltext

Authority records

Ritter, Matthias

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Ritter, Matthias
Economics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 20 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf