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Forecast based Pricing of Weather Derivatives
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2012 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR) are often not incorporated. We adopt a risk neutral approach (for each location) that allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of WD pricing. We study weather Risk Premiums (RPs) implied from either the information MPR gain or the meteorological forecasts. The size of RPs is interesting for investors and issuers of weather contracts to take advantages of geographic diversification, hedging effects and price determinations. By conducting an empirical analysis to London and Rome WD data traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), we find out that either incorporating the MPR or the forecast outperforms the standard pricing techniques. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , 2012. , p. 22
Series
SFB 649 Discussion Paper, ISSN 1860-5664 ; 2012-027
Keywords [en]
Weather derivatives, seasonal variation, temperature, risk premia
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-55249OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-55249DiVA, id: diva2:1616847
Available from: 2021-12-04 Created: 2021-12-04 Last updated: 2021-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Ritter, Matthias

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