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Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The increasing share of wind energy in the portfolio of energy sources highlights its uncertainties due to changing weather conditions. To account for the uncertainty in predicting wind power production, this article examines the volatility forecasting abilities of different GARCH-type models for wind power production. Moreover, due to characteristic features of the wind power process, such as heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity, we also investigate the use of a Markov regime-switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model on forecasting volatility of wind power. The realized volatility, which is derived from lower-scale data, serves as a benchmark for the latent volatility. We find that the MRS-GARCH model significantly outperforms traditional GARCH models in predicting the volatility of wind power, while the exponential GARCH model is superior among traditional GARCH models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin , 2015. , p. 29
Series
SFB 649 Discussion Paper, ISSN 1860-5664 ; 2015-026
Keywords [en]
Wind energy, volatility forecasting, GARCH models, Markov regime-switching, realized volatility
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-55242OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-55242DiVA, id: diva2:1616839
Available from: 2021-12-04 Created: 2021-12-04 Last updated: 2021-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Ritter, Matthias

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CiteExportLink to record
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