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Forecast-based pricing of weather derivatives
Department of Economics and Business Administration, Humboldt University.
Department of Economics, Humboldt University, Germany.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Farm Management Group, Humboldt University, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2015 (English)In: Handbook on The Macroeconomics of Global Warming / [ed] L. Bernard & W. Semmler, Oxford University Press, 2015Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Forecasting based pricing of weather derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data, so that forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR) are often not incorporated. We adopt a risk neutral approach that allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of WD pricing. Weather risk premiums (RPs) are implied from either the information MPR gain or the meteorological forecasts. RP size is interesting for investors and issuers of weather contracts to take advantages of geographic diversification, hedging effects and price determinations. Incorporating either the MPR or forecasts outperforms the standard pricing techniques.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2015.
Keywords [en]
risk premia, seasonal variation, temperature, weather derivatives
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-55237DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0018ISBN: 9780199856978 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-55237DiVA, id: diva2:1616834
Available from: 2021-12-04 Created: 2021-12-04 Last updated: 2021-12-04Bibliographically approved

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Ritter, Matthias

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf