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Pricing rainfall futures at the CME
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz Chair of Statistics, Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2013 (English)In: Journal of Banking & Finance, ISSN 0378-4266, E-ISSN 1872-6372, Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4286-4298Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature derivatives, however, pricing rainfall derivatives is more difficult. In this article, we propose to model rainfall indices via a flexible type of distribution, namely the normal-inverse Gaussian distribution, which captures asymmetries and heavy-tail behaviour. The prices of rainfall futures are computed by employing the Esscher transform, a well-known tool in actuarial science. This approach is flexible enough to price any rainfall contract and to adjust theoretical prices to market prices by using the calibrated market price of risk. The empirical analysis is conducted with US precipitation data and CME futures data providing first results on the market price of risk for rainfall derivatives.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2013. Vol. 37, no 11, p. 4286-4298
Keywords [en]
Esscher transform, Market price of risk, Precipitation, Weather derivatives
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-54534DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.042ISI: 000326212100022Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84883206074OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-54534DiVA, id: diva2:1614632
Available from: 2021-11-26 Created: 2021-11-26 Last updated: 2021-11-26Bibliographically approved

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Ritter, Matthias

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