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Forecasting volatility of wind power production
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2543-3673
2016 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 176, p. 295-308Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Given the increasing share of wind energy in the portfolio of energy sources, there is the need for a more thorough understanding of its uncertainties due to changing weather conditions. To account for the uncertainty in predicting wind power production, this article examines the volatility forecasting abilities of different GARCH-type models for wind power production. Moreover, due to characteristic features of the wind power process, such as heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity, we also investigate the use of a Markov regime-switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model on forecasting volatility of wind power. Realized volatility, which is derived from lower-scale data, serves as a benchmark for latent volatility. We find that the MRS-GARCH model significantly outperforms traditional GARCH models in predicting the volatility of wind power, while the exponential GARCH model is superior among traditional GARCH models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016. Vol. 176, p. 295-308
Keywords [en]
GARCH models, Markov regime-switching, Realized volatility, Volatility forecasting, Wind energy, Forecasting, Statistical methods, Wind power, Forecasting volatility, GARCH-type models, Heteroscedasticity, Wind power production, Weather forecasting, alternative energy, benchmarking, energy resource, forecasting method, Markov chain, numerical model, power generation
National Category
Economics Energy Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-54525DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.05.071ISI: 000378969500026Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84968867232OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-54525DiVA, id: diva2:1614424
Available from: 2021-11-25 Created: 2021-11-25 Last updated: 2021-11-25Bibliographically approved

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Ritter, Matthias

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