Predictive modeling of campaigns to quantify performance in fashion retail industry
2019 (English)In: Proceedings - 2019 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2019, IEEE, 2019, p. 2267-2273Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]
Managing campaigns and promotions effectively is vital for the fashion retail industry. While retailers invest a lot of money in campaigns, customer retention is often very low. At innovative retailers, data-driven methods, aimed at understanding and ultimately optimizing campaigns are introduced. In this application paper, machine learning techniques are employed to analyze data about campaigns and promotions from a leading Swedish e-retailer. More specifically, predictive modeling is used to forecast the profitability and activation of campaigns using different kinds of promotions. In the empirical investigation, regression models are generated to estimate the profitability, and classification models are used to predict the overall success of the campaigns. In both cases, random forests are compared to individual tree models. As expected, the more complex ensembles are more accurate, but the usage of interpretable tree models makes it possible to analyze the underlying relationships, simply by inspecting the trees. In conclusion, the accuracy of the predictive models must be deemed high enough to make these data-driven methods attractive.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2019. p. 2267-2273
Keywords [en]
Campaign Prediction, Decision Trees, Fashion retail, Machine Learning, Predictive Modeling, Random Forest, Big data, Forecasting, Forestry, Learning systems, Profitability, Random forests, Regression analysis, Classification models, Customer retention, Data-driven methods, Empirical investigation, Individual tree model, Machine learning techniques, Sales
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-48026DOI: 10.1109/BigData47090.2019.9005492ISI: 000554828702045Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85081295913ISBN: 9781728108582 (electronic)ISBN: 9781728108599 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-48026DiVA, id: diva2:1417693
Conference
2019 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2019, Los Angeles, United States, 9-12 December 2019
Funder
Knowledge Foundation, 201600352020-03-302020-03-302021-03-15Bibliographically approved