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Comparison of the effectiveness of forecasts obtained by means of selected probability functions with respect to forecast error distributions
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, JIBS, Statistics.
Szczecin University, Econometrics and Statistics Institute.
Szczecin University, Econometrics and Statistics Institute.
2017 (English)In: Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation, ISSN 0361-0918, E-ISSN 1532-4141, Vol. 46, no 5, p. 3667-3679Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Forecasting of sales in a company is one of the crucial challenges that must be faced. Nowadays, there is a large spectrum of methods that enable making reliable forecasts. However, sometimes the nature of time series excludes many well-known and widely used forecasting methods (e.g. econometric models). Therefore, the authors decided to forecast on the basis of a seasonally adjusted median of selected probability distributions. The obtained forecasts were verified by means of distributions of the Theil U2 coefficient and unbiasedness coefficient.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2017. Vol. 46, no 5, p. 3667-3679
Keywords [en]
forecasting, forecasting accuracy, forecast errors distributions, forecasts, unbiasedness
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-28030DOI: 10.1080/03610918.2015.1100734ISI: 000402090000025Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85009216498Local ID: ;intsam;855989OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-28030DiVA, id: diva2:855989
Available from: 2015-09-22 Created: 2015-09-22 Last updated: 2021-03-03Bibliographically approved

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Shukur, Ghazi

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