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Calibrated explanations for regression
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0274-9026
Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School. Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9633-0423
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing, Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0412-6199
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Department of Computing.ORCID iD: 0009-0009-0404-2586
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2025 (English)In: Machine Learning, ISSN 0885-6125, E-ISSN 1573-0565, Vol. 114, no 4, article id 100Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods are an integral part of modern decision support systems. The best-performing predictive models used in AI-based decision support systems lack transparency. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to create AI systems that can explain their rationale to human users. Local explanations in XAI can provide information about the causes of individual predictions in terms of feature importance. However, a critical drawback of existing local explanation methods is their inability to quantify the uncertainty associated with a feature's importance. This paper introduces an extension of a feature importance explanation method, Calibrated Explanations, previously only supporting classification, with support for standard regression and probabilistic regression, i.e., the probability that the target is below an arbitrary threshold. The extension for regression keeps all the benefits of Calibrated Explanations, such as calibration of the prediction from the underlying model with confidence intervals, uncertainty quantification of feature importance, and allows both factual and counterfactual explanations. Calibrated Explanations for regression provides fast, reliable, stable, and robust explanations. Calibrated Explanations for probabilistic regression provides an entirely new way of creating probabilistic explanations from any ordinary regression model, allowing dynamic selection of thresholds. The method is model agnostic with easily understood conditional rules. An implementation in Python is freely available on GitHub and for installation using both pip and conda, making the results in this paper easily replicable.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2025. Vol. 114, no 4, article id 100
Keywords [en]
Explainable AI, Feature importance, Calibrated explanations, Uncertainty quantification, Regression, Probabilistic regression, Counterfactual explanations, Conformal predictive systems
National Category
Artificial Intelligence
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-67398DOI: 10.1007/s10994-024-06642-8ISI: 001427670500004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85218409420Local ID: HOA;;1004935OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-67398DiVA, id: diva2:1942146
Funder
Knowledge FoundationAvailable from: 2025-03-04 Created: 2025-03-04 Last updated: 2025-03-04Bibliographically approved

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Löfström, TuweLöfström, HelenaJohansson, UlfSönströd, CeciliaMatela, Rudy

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Löfström, TuweLöfström, HelenaJohansson, UlfSönströd, CeciliaMatela, Rudy
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Jönköping AI Lab (JAIL)Jönköping International Business SchoolJTH, Department of Computing
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