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The Delphi Technique – Limitations and Possibilities
Jönköping University, School of Engineering, JTH, Industrial Product Development, Production and Design. Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.
2020 (English)In: The 32nd Annual NOFOMA Conference, 17 – 18 September on Internet: Book of abstracts, 2020Conference paper, Oral presentation with published abstract (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Purpose

The dual purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications on research rigour of using two panels in a Delphi study, and to take a first step towards investigating how researchers in logistics and SCM establish rigour in Delphi studies.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a literature review on research rigour in Delphi studies, this paper analyses how a modified design, with two panels, effected research rigour in a Delphi study that produced unexpected results. The paper also conducts a pilot literature review on Delphi-studies in logistics and SCM research, and investigates how these authors establish research rigour.

Findings

This paper finds that with two panels, researchers may enhance rigour in a Delphi study, but also that such a design may lead to results that would be less likely with a conventional design, especially if combined with concluding workshops. The pilot literature review indicates that Delphi-studies in logistics and SCM research establish rigour through the provision of an audit trail, rather than by explicitly discussing the quality criteria of correspondence and/or trustworthiness.

Research limitations/implications (if applicable)

The research indicates limitations with a conventional Delphi design, with one expert panel, and opportunities with a modified design, with two panels. Further research is required to explore these indicative findings.

Original/value

The paper demonstrates how a modified design of the Delphi technique, in combination with concluding workshops, can produce results and insights that would be more difficult to achieve with only one expert panel.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020.
Keywords [en]
Delphi technique, rigour, modified design
National Category
Other Mechanical Engineering Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-50991OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hj-50991DiVA, id: diva2:1501182
Conference
32nd Annual NOFOMA Conference 17-18 September, 2020 (online)
Available from: 2020-11-16 Created: 2020-11-16 Last updated: 2020-11-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Segmentation and differentiation in defence supply chain design: A dynamic purchasing portfolio model for defence procurement
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Segmentation and differentiation in defence supply chain design: A dynamic purchasing portfolio model for defence procurement
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

An important priority in the current Swedish Defence Bill is to increase the operational warfighting capability of the Swedish Armed Forces, which has implications for the defence supply chain. A recent study suggested that the Swedish Armed Forces should use segmentation of supplies and differentiation of supply chains to enable an affordable supply chain design (SCD). This raises questions regarding which segmentation model and which supply chain strategies (SCSs) the Swedish Armed Forces should use.

The purpose of this research is to design and develop a purchasing portfolio model (PPM) for defence procurement, which will be of practical use for defence authorities. The author defines a PPM as consisting of a segmentation model, tactical levers, differentiation strategies and guidance for management decisions. The research builds on a Delphi study with twenty experts from Swedish defence authorities. It addresses the operational requirements on readiness and sustainability that must be satisfied, as well as research gaps and open issues in the literature regarding PPM design and application.

The findings include several novelties. The author proposes a dynamic PPM, including an innovative two-stage segmentation model, with a precursor and a two-dimensional model. The latter merges sixteen elements into one square and three other segments. Another originality is that the PPM is both prescriptive and serves as a catalyst for in-depth discussions. The author also develops guidance for management decisions, including twelve tactical levers, and eight SCSs to differentiate treatment of the supply segments.

The research contributes to theory by combining constructs from the purchasing and supply management (PSM) literature and supply chain management (SCM) literature, and applying them in the context of military logistics, including defence procurement. It contributes to practice by developing a PPM that is relevant to practitioners in defence procurement and satisfies the operational requirements of the Swedish Armed Forces. It also contributes to methodology by investigating how researchers can use two panels in Delphi studies to enhance research validity.

Abstract [sv]

Att öka den operativa krigföringsförmågan har hög prioritet i den nuvarande försvarspolitiska inriktningen, vilket har implikationer för militära försörj-ningskedjor. I en färsk studie rekommenderas Försvarsmakten att utnyttja segmentering av förnödenheter och differentiering av försörjningskedjor för att möjliggöra utformning av försörjningskedjor till ett överkomligt pris. Detta föranleder frågor avseende vilken segmenteringsmodell och vilka försörj-ningsstrategier som Försvarsmakten bör använda.

Syftet med denna avhandling är att utforma och utveckla en portföljmodell för försvarsanskaffning som är praktiskt användbar för försvarsmyndigheter. Enligt författarens definition inkluderar portföljmodellen en segmenterings-modell, taktiska hävstänger, differentieringsstrategier och vägledning för ledningsbeslut. Forskningen bygger på en Delphistudie med tjugo experter från försvarsmyndigheterna. Studien hanterar de operativa kraven på tillgänglighet, beredskap och uthållighet, samt forskningsgap och öppna frågor i litteraturen avseende utformning och användning av en sådan modell.

Resultaten innefattar flera nyheter. Författaren förslår en dynamisk portfölj-modell för försvarsanskaffning, inklusive en segmenteringsmodell i två steg, ett försteg och en tvådimensionell modell. Den senare slår samman sexton element till ett kvadratiskt och tre andra segment. En annan originalitet är att portföljmodellen är både preskriptiv och en katalysator för djuplodande diskussioner. Författaren utvecklar också vägledning för ledningsbeslut, inklusive tolv taktiska hävstänger och åtta differentieringsstrategier.

Forskningen bidrar till teorin genom att kombinera koncept från inköps- och affärslogistiklitteraturen, samt applicera dessa i den militära logistik- och försvarsanskaffningskontexten. Den bidrar till praktiken genom att utveckla en portföljmodell som är relevant för praktiker inom försvarsanskaffning och tillfredsställer Försvarsmaktens operativa krav. Den bidrar också till metod-utveckling genom att undersöka hur forskare kan utnyttja två paneler i Delphistudier för att förbättra forskningens validitet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Jönköping: Jönköping University, School of Engineering, 2020. p. 168
Series
JTH Dissertation Series ; 058
Keywords
purchasing portfolio model, segmentation and differentiation, segmentation model, supply chain strategy, military logistics, defence procurement, defence supply chain design, modified Delphi study, portföljmodell, segmentering och differentiering, segmenterings-modell, försörjningsstrategi, militär logistik, försvarsanskaffning, utformning av militära försörjningskedjor, modifierad Delphistudie
National Category
Other Mechanical Engineering Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-50992 (URN)978-91-87289-62-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-12-16, Gjuterisalen, Tekniska Högskolan, Jönköping, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-11-16 Created: 2020-11-16 Last updated: 2020-11-16Bibliographically approved

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