This study explores the impact of economic downturn in the EU-27 on Syrian trade and

the sensitivity of oil and petroleum products to this downturn. This is carried out using a

derivation of the gravity model to determine the export demand. Syrian export with its

top 30 trading partners as well as the EU-27 are taken into consideration along with

various other trade determinants when measuring the changes in total export volume.

The study finds that EU-27 is an important source of demand for Syria, but a downturn

in the EU economy will not necessarily have a detrimental effect on Syrian economy.

On the other hand, oil plays a far more important role on the country’s exports and its

demand is less sensitive to economic fluctuations.